...Gear crash is coming..

T_Kauff

T_Kauff

Member
It is an interesting time of fantasy selling… were living through right now. New and used. Does the world need another snare drum or guitar for that matter? Probably not but, it is fun to see something new. I have a great deal of gear as a studio owner so, I’m not just interested in drums. That said, I find it fascinating that gear builders and sellers are pretending that price increases are just something that happens in the business. So, I’m predicting a gear crash in the not-too-distant future. In the last few years I’ve seen mega studios close, big re-sellers go out of business and gear that was sent to CHINA “because its cheaper to make it there”….. but now its more expensive than it was when, it was built in the US (i.e. AMPEG) and the quality has taken a hit as well. Interesting times… indeed. What say ye’?
 
Price increases happen in most businesses. Stores and sellers close-up because of competition. Studios close because more artists are making electronic music and don't need a drum room or a space to record acoustic instruments (vocals can be done in any quiet room in the house.) Anyone with a laptop can do world-class recordings at home.

But gear is a little different, because it's possible to saturate the market. I don't think there'll be a crash per se, but the influx of product will undoubtedly slow at some point.
 
I Agree, Hoping someone will pay the big bucks is just wishful thinking . and poor customer service. Inflation is driven by Banks and Government. Interest rate rises are not resolving the issue. Subsidies for business not price rises.. would get spending on the move again. It's just lazy ass economics.
 
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I think that some of those price increases are due to the fluctuating cost of wood for drums, guitars and bass guitars.
The second factor in inflation is unquestionably the price of gas/fuel and transportation costs.

Bermuda has an astute observation about market saturation on music gear as a whole.

I will say this: I have a Chinese constructed Dingwall bass guitar that really surprised me how well made it is.
China ships these basses back to the Dingwall factory where technicians do a final inspection and tweaks are
made on each set up.
 
Interesting topic.
I'm wondering if the impact of the lack of live playing opportunities combined with home recording and competition with other time consuming pursuits such as video games and online entertainment will trigger the law of demand for drum gear. Especially in such a gear saturated market.

What is the law of demand?

Law of demand states that there is an inverse relation between the price of a commodity and its quantity demanded, assuming all other factors affecting demand remain constant. It means that when the price of a good falls, the demand for the good rises and when price rises, the demand falls.
 
I doubt you'll see prices go down. Hasn't really happened in my lifetime, anyway. You'll just see fewer choices after the market is saturated and demand dries up. That's capitalism. Once a company finds out a widget can sell for $100, they aren't going to keep making widgets if they only sell for $75 now. They'll make something else that provides the margin they want to get.
 
Z26R-# said:
I Agree, Hoping someone will pay the big bucks is just wishful thinking . and poor customer service. Inflation is driven by Banks and Government. Interest rate rises are not resolving the issue. Subsidies for business not price rises.. would get spending on the move again. It's just lazy ass economics.
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"Subsidies"? Tax money from struggling workers??
 
I occasionally think to myself "manufacturers are building drum kits faster than we are building drummers"........

Sure we all probably have multiples of everything but at some point the market is just saturated

I also think many of us would be surprised at how few kits of certain types are really hitting the market each year........most manufacturers are not like Ford where they are just pumping out Recording Customs like F-150s to sit on dealer showrooms......
 
On a macabre level ('tis the season), the inescapable truth is that Baby Boomers are celebrating birthdays in the range of 59-77 this year. If the "gear market" was confined to the U.S., we'd soon see a decline demand as more and more boomers downsize into smaller homes in denser neighborhoods for seniors or check into nursing homes that rarely welcome a Grandpa's Neil Peart set-up.

But, it's increasingly a global world, and with any of the U.S. market, the DWs and Ludwigs of the world are going to shift part of their attention to countries with a far younger demographic -- Mexico, China, India, etc. -- just as the major car companies are already doing.

Of course, it's harder to ship vintage gear across oceans, but Son of Vistalite Black has confidence there will be entrepreneurs who recognize how much drummers in England, Germany or Norway are paying for the small selection of drums available to them. If one filled a 40-foot shipping container with vintage kits -- even in just reliable condition -- and shipped it all to Europe, you could make enough to spend part of your summer sunning in Ibiza.
 
Son of Vistalite Black said:
On a macabre level ('tis the season), the inescapable truth is that Baby Boomers are celebrating birthdays in the range of 59-77 this year. If the "gear market" was confined to the U.S., we'd soon see a decline demand as more and more boomers downsize into smaller homes in denser neighborhoods for seniors or check into nursing homes that rarely welcome a Grandpa's Neil Peart set-up.

But, it's increasingly a global world, and with any of the U.S. market, the DWs and Ludwigs of the world are going to shift part of their attention to countries with a far younger demographic -- Mexico, China, India, etc. -- just as the major car companies are already doing.

Of course, it's harder to ship vintage gear across oceans, but Son of Vistalite Black has confidence there will be entrepreneurs who recognize how much drummers in England, Germany or Norway are paying for the small selection of drums available to them. If one filled a 40-foot shipping container with vintage kits -- even in just reliable condition -- and shipped it all to Europe, you could make enough to spend part of your summer sunning in Ibiza.
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Agreed.

You already see this in the touring market over the last 10-25 years.

Bands that used to be big in the US and used to be confined to touring the US, Canada, and west Europe are now making just as much money, if not more, touring Eastern Europe, Asia, and Central/South America.

We're seeing bands from countries that would have once never been able to perform outside their country being able to achieve global success.

And all this is making musicians in what were once obscure parts of the world want to AND be able to buy instruments.
 
" A man legitimately can't steal anything anymore"
- yogi berra
 
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everyone's asking so high rarely can steal anything
I know I got the my last vintage and used deals this year
immediately afterwards - hot on my tail 😁 one item in particular nearly doubled
I just made it under the wire..
 
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I remember in the 70s and 80s reading encyclopedias and dictionaries describing what Baby Boomers are and it always said up to 1960-61 and maybe 1962. Sometimes there was a blurb that added, 'some say 1964'. Written as such to present that a minority of descriptions included 63 and 64.
None of the definitions absolutely included 63 and 64. At sometime during my adulthood, gov decided to just change it to 64. No. /rolleyes.
It was done because they started Xers too late. I remember it clearly.

Baby Boomers who are old enough to reproduce by several years can't have more Baby Boomers.
 
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T_Kauff said:
...Been seeing A LOT of price decreases on REVEB as of late. not just drums but, electronics and speakers as well.
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Decreases from asking prices, or decreases below several-years-ago prices?

When used Acrolites are below $100 again, I'll accept that prices are crashing, lol.

The long term trend is never down, IME. The whole world economy would have to tank for that to happen, I think!
 
I honestly don’t think China can be discounted any longer as the place to get shoddy goods. Mostly everything we use in America was made in China and I’ve great drums made in China. I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong and that whatever this is will lead to some kind of market crash. Musical gear isn’t a big enough market to affect what’s going on globally anyway (but I guess most musicians are self-centered enough to think they’re relevant to everything😂).
 
T_Kauff said:
That said, I find it fascinating that gear builders and sellers are pretending that price increases are just something that happens in the business.
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What I see is retailers upping their prices & using the WAY overused "Supply chain issues" as a reason for it. When in reality, that excuse went out with the pandemic almost 2 years ago.
They just want to gouge you as much as they can as long as they can. I'm fortunate that I got what I needed before all this gouging began & have no plans to buy anything else other than expendables.
 
Cmdr. Ross said:
What I see is retailers upping their prices & using the WAY overused "Supply chain issues" as a reason for it. When in reality, that excuse went out with the pandemic almost 2 years ago.
They just want to gouge you as much as they can as long as they can. I'm fortunate that I got what I needed before all this gouging began & have no plans to buy anything else other than expendables.
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I'm right there with ya' Commander! glad I bought what I did, when I did. I've really pulled back investing in drums the past couple of years because of the things you stated. am curious as to who else has as well. meanwhile...I'm waiting for the crash.
 
Stroman said:
Decreases from asking prices, or decreases below several-years-ago prices?

When used Acrolites are below $100 again, I'll accept that prices are crashing, lol.

The long term trend is never down, IME. The whole world economy would have to tank for that to happen, I think!
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Both actually. I don't mind paying a fair price but, things have gotten out of hand, and it will hurt the industry in the end. is a good time to make friends. :cool:
 
Cmdr. Ross said:
What I see is retailers upping their prices & using the WAY overused "Supply chain issues" as a reason for it. When in reality, that excuse went out with the pandemic almost 2 years ago.
They just want to gouge you as much as they can as long as they can. I'm fortunate that I got what I needed before all this gouging began & have no plans to buy anything else other than expendables.
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and, if people are willign to keep spending money on stuff, places will still sell it

I am also glad that I have all of the gear that I need. Other than sticks or bass strings, I am set for a long while
 
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