This is an interesting thread.
The first question that came to mind upon reading it is: are we equating 'being a good drummer' with 'having good technique' here?
but, I'm not even going to go there, hee hee (puts devil horns away for a moment). For sake of this thread, I'll assume we're just talking about technique.
I've thought about this a lot over the years and, in terms of technique, I think there is a talent factor, but I think it's a small one. I'd go so far as to say that 80%-90% of what people call talent is really desire. People who are labeled as having a lot of talent are often people who really, really want to be very skilled drummers -not just people who want to to play for fun and love it, but really feel a burning desire to excell at it. it's along the lines of "where there's a will, there's a way," in my opion. If you want that technique bad enough, you'll probably find a way to develop it. (the fellow who was a burn victim and now a successful pro drummer comes to mind -the guy who had to tape the sticks to his hands before several reconstructive surguries. I know there was a post about him on here a while back, but I don't remember his name and couldn't find it. Incredibly inspiring, though.)
Of course there are exceptions -there are the naturally super-gifted and the rhythm deaf, but I think that's the extreme minority. I think people who are completely rhythm deaf are probably about as common as people who are as naturally adept as buddy rich -they're out there, but there are also people out there holding winning lottery tickets. Most of the time, you can assume anyone who just bought a lottery ticket isn't one of those people.
A lot of people have told me that they could never play the drums because they "have no rhythm -I can't dance -I can't even clap in time with music" which I usually respond to with "yes you do, everybody has a natural sense of rhythm" -of course the reply is "oh yeah, well not me." to which I usually ask "really? what's your phone number?" ...and, I always get a response in the perfect phone-number rhythm which, in the US at least, is 1-2-3(rest)4-5-6(rest)7-8-9-10 -why not 1-2(rest)3(rest)4-5-6-7-8(rest)9-10? There's one rhythm they already know. There're other examples too -songs like 'happy birthday' that everyone seems to know the rhythm to, or even walking at a constant speed -not something that could easily be done (or done at all, really) with no sense of rhythm. People just need to learn to get in touch with it and to manipulate that sense they already have.
...aaaanyway, I've rambled on enough here. just thought I'd toss that out on the table.