Looks like I get a vacation!

Bo Eder

Platinum Member
Thanks coronavirus and basic human panicking!

I was driving into work today (and it was pouring rain, not a day you want to be doing an hour drive on a freeway in California), and found out during my drive time that Disney announced it would close both California theme parks on Saturday, March 14th for about two weeks.

I like to hope that without guests in the parks, we could actually get alot of maintenance stuff done and fix things that really need to be fixed, but a decision hasn't been made on how we're gonna do that. I expect to get a call tomorrow telling me what I'll be doing for the next two weeks, but right now everything is up in the air. Part of me wants those of us who can work, to work, but OTOH, having all the employees at work doing stuff kinda' negates the whole "getting this virus under control" bit, doesn't it?

We'll see how we're doing in a couple of weeks!
 

Anduin

Pioneer Member
“Flatten the curve,” is supposedly the approach. Not stopping the virus, just slowing its spread.

The city I live in is all but shutting down as of midnight tonight. Toilet paper, of all things, seems to high on the hoarders’ lists.

Stay safe!
 

BacteriumFendYoke

Platinum Member
We've got an extensive home-working plan in my department. I work in IT for a University and we had a team meeting on Wednesday discussing our requirements for a home office setup. I'm getting a laptop (I have nine computers - none of them have a valid Windows 10 licence), a monitor, a phone and some powerline ethernet adapters for the phone and I've sorted my study out.

The downside is that today we had two of my team working from home as a trial, one guy out on the other side of town and one guy on leave - so it was down to two of us to manage our drop-in and do the rest of our job. Loads of old laptops were presented and people were asking me left, right and centre to set it up so they could remotely work. Usual panic. Our manager is convinced it will happen, it's just a case of when rather than if.

On the plus side, I get to walk my dog at lunchtime and it might also open discussions about regular working from home in the future if our productivity isn't too affected - which I suspect it won't be after the initial settling-in period.
 

rhumbagirl

Senior Member
“Flatten the curve,” is supposedly the approach. Not stopping the virus, just slowing its spread.

The city I live in is all but shutting down as of midnight tonight. Toilet paper, of all things, seems to high on the hoarders’ lists.

Stay safe!
I think this is what the American response is looking like:

Assume everyone is going to become infected - 327 million Americans, therefore no testing (or little testing) is needed, especially since the treatment is the same for flu.

Ask everyone to stay in home now to delay the rise in cases, in the hopes that the 16%*** of Americans who are at risk (pre-existing conditions, elderly) will need healthcare not all at the same time (i.e. a flatter demand on healthcare resources).

If you assume everyone is going to get it, then you don’t need to screen, no need for testing. But they want to test to determine the death rate. So they will only test if symptomatic. Those in low risk group, will recover in their own homes on their own, and won’t be tested at all. No one will know about them. They won’t show up in the statistics at all.

If they don't build makeshift hospitals like China did, then consider impact of cross-infection with regular hospital patients with pre-existing conditions.

***Pulled out of my a## until I get more information
EDIT: Apparently my a## is correct: :)
 
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Xstr8edgtnrdrmrX

Well-known member
same here in my high school and middle schools...

with my high school kids I do video assignments every weekend, so that won't change...the middle school all don't have that same kind of access, so they are on the "honor system" to practice.

our concert band contest got cancelled, and the musical might get cancelled, but our Spring Concert will probably still go on as it is in May. I will take this time to really dig into arranging and designing our marching band show, and to get waaayyy ahead on my indoor drumline show for this fall. There will also be some whittling down of the honey-do list at home, and of course drumming and riding my bike
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Yes two of my daughters and my son-in-law in Atlanta told to stay home-two can work from home. My granddaughters daycare is still open but my daughter is going to keep her home (thankfully). My wife is still working in pediatric hospice but I guess she could get pulled to address adults for medical surge now states implementing their emergency preparedness plans. She was a pediatrician for close to 30 years so a lot of her patients were in college by the time she quit LOL-she also treated adult hospice for 4 years. She'll likely be on front lines as all other health professionals from various specialities, etc. could be called for infectious disease to address medical surge in each state-now each will be implementing their emergency preparedness plans. With the health care pros being at such risks I'm scared for my angel-face. Feel like she has a bulls eye on her.

China has a population of 1.4 billion and so far approx. 145,000 cases and approx. 5,000 deaths. So that makes me hopeful it will be even less here with a fraction of that population. I'm hopeful that reasoning isn't just wishful thinking.
Dang I'm repeating myself-I think I'm stressed.
 

rhumbagirl

Senior Member
China has a population of 1.4 billion and so far approx. 145,000 cases and approx. 5,000 deaths. So that makes me hopeful it will be even less here with a fraction of that population. I'm hopeful that reasoning isn't just wishful thinking.
Dang I'm repeating myself-I think I'm stressed.
That's just amazing. China seems to have effectively put a lid on the virus.

Getting back to that 16% of Americans. Add Americans with pre-existing conditions, and you are 20% or more = 65.4 million at risk, who will need hospital stays/beds/ventilators.

The number of hospital beds is 800,000 in the US, and of that being 80,000 ICU beds, and of those having ventilators: 75,000.

Assume two weeks (14 days) for the average patient to stay on a ventilator to recover (or not recover). To stay under the flattening line, it would take (65.4*10^6/75*10^3)*14 = 12208 days to completely treat all COVID-19 affected people that are at risk. That is 33 years.

If the average is just 2 days on a ventilator, that is 4.5 years.

The maximum time to keep people quarantined in their home before it becomes economically infeasible, is just a few months.

Conclusion: It isn't possible to 'flatten' the curve. It's a pipe dream.
 
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GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
We don't know what proportion of "those at risks" might die-Tom Hanks didn't he had diabetes. Those at risk can still manifest with minor symptoms-like the fella with a kidney transplant should be at real high risks being immunocompromised but though positive he had minor symptoms. It's a crap shoot really just those "at risks" more likely. Like obesity increases your risk but doesn't guarantee an outcome-lot of fat people out live thin LOL. I was just reading that they have traced the virus to patient No 1 in China but his infection was in November long before it was recognized so the virus had a head start.. I think the strategy will work but it could take legal but draconian measures Congress has set up.
Like seriously It could get surreal now an emergency called you may even see federal quarantines in various states or areas as they chase the wave of transmission. Once CDC gets lots of data with testing they'll suggest quarantines and/or travel bans-the police, U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and coast guard can enforce the quarantine and block interstate travel if need be for a really serious pandemic threat-little used recourse. The testing is beneficial for those epidemiological strategies (impose quarantines or travel bans) and then in testing antiviral drugs and vaccines.Glad it appears testing will increase exponential now -Kudos to Roche (wonder what company screwed up first?) for making a test that works and Quest and Labcorp offering their technology-I hope major medical/research centers also buck up because the technology can speed up a lengthy process usually. Still I'm worried about my baby-so in case of mask shortage I'm thinking of using high MERV air-conditioning filter to jerry-rig some masks if need be. Probably look ridiculous but in theory it can be as effective as a N95 or N99 respirator. Maybe add duck tape to it and call it the Hillbilly Mask. Heck could start a trend.
 
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rhumbagirl

Senior Member
It's certainly too early to say Tom Hanks is going to be okay, having just yesterday tested positive. He will have to be in isolation and constantly monitored for 14 days. Additionally his outcome will surely benefit from his wealth and access to better and timely care.

Secondly, even if an at-risk case is not pre-destined to die from COVID-19, if the hospital bed is not available when they need it - because resources are maxed out - then it's reasonable to assume, generally speaking, this impacts their survival chances. Somehow we need to get from 3 months to 18 months (13 month window) when a vaccine might be available.

EDIT: If want to give the healthcare industry the best case - 800,000 beds are available, and they meet the needs of those being treated - (65.4x10^6/800x10^3)*14 = 1145 days = 3.13 years, which is still way beyond economic feasibility of social distancing.

If we do social distancing, stay at home, for 3 months, and they come up with an anti-viral solution at that time, then yes we may have a chance. But anti-viral mass production could take longer.
 
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GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
The US has already used antivirals successfully-though not tested on whole population. China is now trying them after US publications.I was just reading because of reluctance to believe numbers from China and Iran that Italy would be a fair match of progress we should expect in US. That's scary given it's almost exponential growth. Actually I'd even go farther to say likely all estimates don't reflect reality which will likely be teased out like past pandemics long after the fact. The main issue will be Medical surge because each State is responsible for the preparedness and health care facilities and each state will vary in their abilities. That's why CDC can isolate a State apparently. I don't want to make estimates of deaths (though know it will be thousands per day eventually) especially because they expect a high fraction of those deaths will be health care pros (more susceptible by exposure and the majority of US physicians are 55-65). Factually the US is no better prepared now than 2006 when act first initiated even though lots of good faith efforts by two branches of govt. to address our problem. I find those peer-review reviews very disturbing so I'm quitting reading the literature. Science and reality often make bad bedfellows. And people are dying all over the world right now-most forum member likely know someone affected. Given that sensitivity I don't want to make judgements or predictions of number of deaths-cause I'm freaking out enough as it is and one of those death could be a loved one. We have lots of older members on forum so likely forum member impacted. I'm praying for us all.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
I worry about lots of friends and family-even here Andy, Johnny, Bermuda, Bernhard,etc, etc, etc a bunch of you old curmudgeons. None are immune from an impact. Maybe the thread would be better suited to real life experience-maybe some useful suggestions those weathering this storm. We can be a support group or even grieve together.
 

johnwesley

Silver Member
Thanks coronavirus and basic human panicking!

I was driving into work today (and it was pouring rain, not a day you want to be doing an hour drive on a freeway in California), and found out during my drive time that Disney announced it would close both California theme parks on Saturday, March 14th for about two weeks.

I like to hope that without guests in the parks, we could actually get alot of maintenance stuff done and fix things that really need to be fixed, but a decision hasn't been made on how we're gonna do that. I expect to get a call tomorrow telling me what I'll be doing for the next two weeks, but right now everything is up in the air. Part of me wants those of us who can work, to work, but OTOH, having all the employees at work doing stuff kinda' negates the whole "getting this virus under control" bit, doesn't it?

We'll see how we're doing in a couple of weeks!
I can't stand the panic attitude is what gets me. I 6 people in this house and store shelves are bare of all necessities, yet only 19 virus cases in all of Arizona.
 

Bo Eder

Platinum Member
UPDATE: I guess we’re not that panicky here in Anaheim. I was just told I’ll be working all my regular shifts for the foreseeable future. Which is good because there’s plenty to check on and maintain which is better when guests aren’t here. So I’m creating lists of things to do and system programming that I can brush up on.

Part of me is bummed because other guys will be getting a paid vacation, while it’s business as usual for me.
 
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Xstr8edgtnrdrmrX

Well-known member
honestly, I fear more harm is going to happen due to the unnecessary panic being created as societal civility deteriorates. We are already seeing people fighting for groceries, and price gouging etc...I really don't trust that Americans can be civil and proactive in a situation like this...
 

Benthedrummer

Junior Member
honestly, I fear more harm is going to happen due to the unnecessary panic being created as societal civility deteriorates. We are already seeing people fighting for groceries, and price gouging etc...I really don't trust that Americans can be civil and proactive in a situation like this...

Funny you should mention this.

I was working in the emergency department in my local hospital last night and one of the security guards was buying heaps of bug-out gear online, and pepper spray, knives etc.

He told me that he's prepping for when people here get hungry and become possessed trying to break in to houses.

People are flipping their lids over toilet paper....... imagine the collective insanity when FOOD is gone from the supermarkets!
 

Bo Eder

Platinum Member
honestly, I fear more harm is going to happen due to the unnecessary panic being created as societal civility deteriorates. We are already seeing people fighting for groceries, and price gouging etc...I really don't trust that Americans can be civil and proactive in a situation like this...
Dude, that's already happening. The people who are panic buying everything in sight at the grocery store are causing otherwise calm shoppers to do the same because they fear none of that stuff will be re-supplied any time soon. When people are lining up two hours outside a Costco before it even opens, the time's have changed. Part of me is disgusted at the fear-mongers.
 
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