I’m worried that live music is over

NouveauCliche

Senior Member
Maybe I’ll get to play at church again, when/if this social distancing eases, but I’m worried I’ll never get another gig outside my church.
It'll come back with a VENGEANCE. The question is when.

I can't even tell you how many gigs have re-scheduled (luckily not canceled) and a lot of theaters have done us the grace of paying half now for performances later...Originally starting in September - now pushed back into Jan. - but it'll come back.

I know this is hard - but I have a family and a whole string of elderly family members that I'm the sole care-taker of...so despite music being dead for a while - I'm glad we are all doing out part to keep this under control.

Looking forward to playing out again and I'v been enjoying the whole live stream thing thing - we have some in partnership with The Smithsonian later this summer and we've been working with the venues we had planned to play live on virtual concerts as well.

Crazy times.
 

Andy

Administrator
Staff member
I'm hopeful further research will yield a better understanding of risk factors in different spaces (i.e. outdoor vs. indoor, audience density, etc), and that in turn will assist decision making. As the band member who's least likely to have a positive outcome if infected, I have to take this thing seriously, but measured by the fact I have a life to live, rather than an existence to endure. As always, I'm highly evidence based in my decision making.

Back in February, I was lucky enough to be receiving advice from a personal connection who is in a super informed position on this subject. I was aware of the likely exponential infection rate reality compared to the "official" numbers, and also research on aerosol potential / room loading. At that time, the RO was around 3, with case identification in the infectious stage of less than 5%, and case reporting at least 2 weeks behind infection / carrier reality. This effectively meant that assessing personal risk on reported numbers infected was useless. That enabled me to take decisions early - way ahead of the delayed government response - I'm very pleased that I did. Most governments knew this. Some acted accordingly, some didn't. I just hope that same level of fact based information translates to future government actions, rather than voter based headline announcements.

Until proven otherwise, I still regard outdoor gigs as generally presenting a lower risk to performers compared to indoor gigs. Of course, there's a lot of variables in that statement, and the audience risk position may be very different depending on crowd density. Right now, the gigs that trouble me the most are packed out small bar gigs, yet I fear government decisions will be taken on very crude criteria such as crowd size alone, partly because such decisions are easier for the population to understand, therefore presenting the opportunity of greater compliance.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Here's a great Nature article on China's response to COVID-19 which was part China reforms and actually an international consortium effort established by China after dismal failure of first SARS pandemic. China did learn from their past mistakes, however they still made some mistakes-as all have it appears. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0771-1
Now they contained an epidemic but did allow it to escape (at same time they effectively contained it there) and produce a global pandemic-they closed down China but allowed international travel till March when WHO finally called a pandemic. .
"China’s assertion that all was well for international travel was supported by the WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the opening of the agency’s Executive Board meet on the 3rd February. He said ” There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying criticised the US advisories saying “The U.S. government hasn’t provided any substantial assistance to us, but it was the first to evacuate personnel from its consulate in Wuhan, the first to suggest partial withdrawal of its embassy staff, and the first to impose a comprehensive travel ban on Chinese travellers” So China has a record of good faith efforts (except for international travel) but I think it's fair to say WHO has a lot to answer for because their messaging actually helped spread the disease-since they didn't balk at international travel all the while supporting China's quarantines and internal travel bans (so they were fully aware of how contagious and deadly in Feb). yet still supported international travel from China till March. Though few there were cases being reported globally in Jan-Feb. so fully aware a deadly virus flew the coup. There is no mention of pandemic in their report-it's basically a China epidemic report. You'll have a difficult time proving China at fault but WHO has a pile of problems because best practices would have prevented it's spread from China.
Here's WHO timeline= https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/27-04-2020-who-timeline---covid-19
It's fair to say they were more concerned with China than a global problem.
WHO timeline quote-
11 March 2020
Deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction, WHO made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic. "
Hmmm so though they fully aware of all intricacies of virus (how contagious and deadly)-even knew in Jan that convalescing immunoglobulin can treat disease, but seem surprised there is a global problem-after actually supporting exporting the virus globally. I call Bull shit. Now I have to admit I generally support WHO-especially work on violence prevention and other efforts in disease, but for whatever reasons they dropped the ball this time-so rather disappointed. I don't think anything nefarious was going on though-just screw ups. As of Feb I don't China knew they had parallel lines of viruses so no evidence that it had mutated in Wuhan and it was a different beast than rest of China that they had a better grip and understanding of virus. I think no matter where you look you'll find screw. ups with the transmission and propagation of this virus-partly cause it was a new unknown entity-the US has lots of issues as apparently elsewhere. The US was part of consortium that wrote this report so US did support-"
  1. The Joint Mission consisted of 25 national and international experts from China, Germany, Japan, Korea, Nigeria, Russia, Singapore, the United States of America and the World Health Organization (WHO). The Joint Mission was headed by Dr Bruce Aylward of WHO and Dr Wannian Liang of the People’s Republic of China. The full list of members and their affiliations is available in Annex A. The Joint Mission was implemented over a 9-day period from 16-24 February 2020. The schedule of work is available in Annex BI" I just hope that rather than finger pointing and a bitch fest that everyone comes together to address problems for better preparation of future incidents-which with a growing world population the incidence increases. If scientist spent all their time lamenting over failures and screw up we'd never progress , which science did fail us a bit from finding something to anything productive to help. But I can clearly see it's been "politicized" just "geopoliticalized" which is worse. So nothing constructive will come of this is my sad prediction so likely the next pandemic similar problems. Since that's been the case the last twenty years. Although I have to admit I think China is ahead of the game compared to rest of world TBF.
 
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opentune

Platinum Member
Ultimately this will boil down to personal decisions of every patron, and of every entertainer. Clearly some governments are anxious to open the doors of as much as possible, some far more cautious. Their assessment won't be perfect.
Any of us will decide do I go out tonight and ' drum at risk'. Patrons will have to ask do I want to go 'listen at risk'. What the risk is judged to be may also vary widely. These decisions will also vary on whether you do this for a living. I see images of buskers in parks right now using social distancing, so no doubt live music will return.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
I think you're right Jeremy-look at us all of us are playing/practicing more-I bet every instrument is doing that-and everyone listening to music-since video and TV gets boring pretty quick. Music is mood altering and potent as any drug.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
So this thread is only one still open. Amazing. And just to be clear-NO PARAGRAPHS are the Agrippa norm-you're lucky there is any punctuation. I find it so sad all these threads become so uncivil. I can really relate but nothing good comes of it. I use to be pretty authoritarian in my views-I generally research a topic so can back up my posits with logic and facts-and I was intolerant of others views and I also had anger managment issues (which I've mentioned) such other faculty thought Art was fixing to open a can of whoop ass on another faculty member or a chairman or administrator (I didn't to be clear). I had no idea the road to hell was "right" but nothing good comes of it I can tell you that. I gave up on being "right" and "uncivil".Now I do appreciate the passions that drive it-all the deaths in nursing homes, different nations and entities response, etc are infuriating but I put that passion down before it gets me in trouble and being uncivil. I often refer to myself as an "idiot" for good reason sadly.
 
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GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
I know there are lots of vaccines being tested-I'm not sure if any using CRISPR-cas to actually design better. But using CRISPR-cas is being explored with lots of vaccines that have been difficult to produce a vaccine-like RSV, Epstein-bar, HIV, etc. All that depends on natural human immunity-that which are born with by random recombination of a limited tool box of genes that produces the system that will recognize possible antigen/epitopes various foreign pathogens might present. So our random immunity produces B and T cells that see foreign entities-so it doesn't recognize everything. The lab I did my first post doc discovered how a pregnant mother's immunity is turned off so doesn't attack the conceptus. T-cell suppression so those immune cells don't attack a fetus as a foreign pathogen-the immune cells are starved to death related to tryptophan metabolism so they see it as foreign just deleted. But I digress, anyways the CRISPR-cas is a game changer on so many levels-we can play "god" like never before. Because now it's feasible to actually alter our immunity and design it with CRISPR-cas to better match a immune response to a specific pathogen-so wouldn't be a vaccine but gene therapy basically-which has already proven successful with hematopoietic cancers.. But we can alter the innate and adaptive response now. CRISPR-cas is proving to be a powerful took in the fight against cancer too. Designer immunity. Now there are risks, like with vaccines, because you are altering geneics and could have unforeseen consequence-like cancer or if introduced into germ line alter our evolution. But viruses can insert into our genome and cause cancers like Human Papilloma and Epstein bar, and evolutionary biologist hypothesize viral insertions molded the evolution of life on earth as a horizontal gene flow. So advantageous genes like homeotic genes for patterning spread to disparate species by unconventional means rather than mutation and sexual recombination in population genetics that usually occurs during evolution. We are saturated with viruses and bacteria-inside and out all the time. Just some can cause disease-other appear beneficial. I think we have a lot to learn about viruses-and HIV/AIDS really changed the progress in virology-which despite huge strides the nano world of viruses remains mostly unexplored. The benefits from the line of research has been a huge advancement for all science-we use viral proteins and strategies in research all the time now. I used it to get mimetic peptides into cells rather than harsh chemical means. The reality is viruses probably save more human lives than it ever takes-which I don't want to sound insensitive with so many dying now-from COVID, AIDS, Flu's. I wonder since there are so many mutations accumulating in SARS-COV-2, like influenza viruses, I wonder will scientist try to have to predict what corona strain-like flu strain- will predominate and make a strain specific vaccine. I can for see that possibility since the mutations occur in hot spots-much like flu that produces all the minor variants?
 
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wildbill

Platinum Member
Yes. Precautions that nobody else is having to deal with. Whatever those might be. It’s a jerk move to potentially expose other people to an infectious, dangerous disease because you don’t want the inconvenience of taking precautions that most other people are engaging in.
Another thread got closed a minute or two before I could respond to this.

I absolutely agree about your jerk move thinking.

I disagree that oppression/suppression is OK as long as it affects everyone.

Voluntary actions to protect yourself and others are completely rational and ideally, would be the norm.
 

nick_nicklson

New member
Are you serious, guys? Somehow I firmly believe that live music will never die. It's our inspiration, it clears the mind, motivates new achievements.
I agree with the statement above that live music just went into a slightly different format, but it never died.
 

Jasta 11

Well-known member
My band just booked a gig ( they offered 2 dates) the 23rd of this month. We have about 6 gigs at this location already on the books but they just offered us 3 more this summer and the two yesterday. It's a hard place for bands to get gigs at and they book the band rotation summer by December. I wonder if other bands are afraid, dropping out or maybe they couldn't survive the lack of paying gigs?? They have a large patio by the ocean so we can be away from the crowd/dancers...if people show up. Our calendar is still pretty full through 2020 so we hope by mid summer or so to be playing our gigs.
 

Andy

Administrator
Staff member
My band just booked a gig ( they offered 2 dates) the 23rd of this month. We have about 6 gigs at this location already on the books but they just offered us 3 more this summer and the two yesterday. It's a hard place for bands to get gigs at and they book the band rotation summer by December. I wonder if other bands are afraid, dropping out or maybe they couldn't survive the lack of paying gigs?? They have a large patio by the ocean so we can be away from the crowd/dancers...if people show up. Our calendar is still pretty full through 2020 so we hope by mid summer or so to be playing our gigs.
That sounds really positive! Our situation is the polar opposite. As of Friday, every single event & festival gig booked for this year is cancelled. Only one large bar gig remains in the calendar for October, but I seriously doubt that will survive either.

Our act had pretty much positioned away from even the larger bar gigs anyhow, which may turn out to be a lucky move given the likely financial state of that circuit in the medium term.
 

Jasta 11

Well-known member
That sounds really positive! Our situation is the polar opposite. As of Friday, every single event & festival gig booked for this year is cancelled. Only one large bar gig remains in the calendar for October, but I seriously doubt that will survive either.

Our act had pretty much positioned away from even the larger bar gigs anyhow, which may turn out to be a lucky move given the likely financial state of that circuit in the medium term.
Yeah we have been worried about our bar gigs, we kind of feel like employees of a lot of the venues as to our frequency of play ( and some taxes we pay at years end). We are pulling for them to survive not for our sake but their staff as well. A lot are opening in our state soon but outdoor seating only, which we understand cant always fit a band.
 

Xstr8edgtnrdrmrX

Well-known member
That sounds really positive! Our situation is the polar opposite. As of Friday, every single event & festival gig booked for this year is cancelled. Only one large bar gig remains in the calendar for October, but I seriously doubt that will survive either.

Our act had pretty much positioned away from even the larger bar gigs anyhow, which may turn out to be a lucky move given the likely financial state of that circuit in the medium term.
pretty much this for us as well in Ohio. Luckily, most of the bookers told us that we were on for X or Y event when it happens in 2021. My wife runs a large booth/event at the Dublin Irish Fest, and I think that is now canc'ed as well. I am surprised they have held out this long...
 

Lee-Bro

Senior Member
pretty much this for us as well in Ohio. Luckily, most of the bookers told us that we were on for X or Y event when it happens in 2021. My wife runs a large booth/event at the Dublin Irish Fest, and I think that is now canc'ed as well. I am surprised they have held out this long...
Funny thing, you and I are in the same general neighborhood and we have stuff getting cancelled while booking additional dates. BUT, it's summer cancellations and fall/winter bookings.
 
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