I’m worried that live music is over

Yamaha Rider

Well-known member
Here's the thing. Right now the situation in the US is as you described where you are. All gigs and public entertaining events are forbidden. All professional sports have been suspended. The protocol is "stay the fxxx at home". And for good reason. With what we know about both the virus, how deadly it is and how contagious it is and the fact that if you get it and beat it, you can get it again, unlike some other diseases where you build up immunity once you've had it again, like chicken pox. And since this is a totally new and unknown virus, it is going to take about a year to a year and a half before we see a truly proven and tested vaccine. So, I believe that we are going to be essentially shut down for at least that long until after a vaccine is found. Unprecedented in modern times is how I'd describe this. And in spite of all that I've said, which are facts, there are lots of people here in the US who think that it's fine to carry assault weapons into their state capital buildings to protest any kind of restrictions on social interaction. There are lots of people who have no problem putting money before life, so long as it's not their life. Pretty selfish if you ask me. I keep hearing people say that "we don't have many cases here so therefore there is no need to keep the stay at home protocol." Well, those people have missed the fact that the reason they don't have many cases is BECAUSE of the stay at home protocols. We've seen what happens when people ignore the protocols. Spring Break in the Southern US was a disaster because many of those who were ignoring the advice to stay home ended up getting the virus, bringing it home to their families and killing their relatives. Same thing happened at New Orleans' Mardi Gras celebration. Facts. And we've seen the number of cases rise dramatically in Michigan, the state that has the most protests against social distancing taking place. In fact, Michigan now has the third highest number of deaths in the entire country after NY and NJ. So, it's got the third highest number of deaths yet it is the 10th most populous state. Anyway, whether we like it or not the virus is going to dictate things until such time as we have another method of fighting it. Those who ignore the protocols will simply cause people to die. I'll just leave you with one last point. There is a pastor from the South who was railing against what he called the "hysteria" surrounding the virus. He went to Mardi Gras, got the coronavirus and died. You can't fix stupid. And there seems to be no shortage of immensely stupid people here in the US.
I don't think your claim that there's no immunity after infection has been proven. And you are discounting the possibility of antivirals dramatically reducing the deathrate, which might turn this into 'just another flu'.
 

MntnMan62

Junior Member
I don't think your claim that there's no immunity after infection has been proven. And you are discounting the possibility of antivirals dramatically reducing the deathrate, which might turn this into 'just another flu'.
Well, you are correct it hasn't been proven. Nothing about this virus has been proven yet. All we know is it is deadly. Very deadly. I'd say there is a good sign that there are plenty of people who have tested positive but show no symptoms. Maybe we can learn something about immunity from those who are carriers but don't succumb to symptoms. But there are also reports of people coming down with the virus more than once. Let's face it. The thing has only been around for 3 months. But if we are to get a handle on this thing and understand natural or manufactured immunity we need to be doing both more testing and it needs to be done in very systematic way, collected in a centralized way and evaluated by many different experts in the field of infectious diseases. That is not happening right now. I won't go into why I think that isn't happening because that will just open the door for people to inject political commentary. The fact remains that testing is haphazard at best. That's not helping anyone. And lastly, in my earlier post I indicated that I was confident that while it may take some time we will eventually come up with a vaccine for it.
 

Push pull stroke

Platinum Member
I don't think your claim that there's no immunity after infection has been proven. And you are discounting the possibility of antivirals dramatically reducing the deathrate, which might turn this into 'just another flu'.
But it might be another 8 months or more before we either have a vaccine or other therapies that work well. And even then, it would be several more months before it could be manufactured in large enough amounts to be widely available. And by that time, our culture may have changed permanently. There just may not be nearly as many gigs anymore. I mean, I REALLY will miss gigging, if that’s what happens.
 

MntnMan62

Junior Member
But it might be another 8 months or more before we either have a vaccine or other therapies that work well. And even then, it would be several more months before it could be manufactured in large enough amounts to be widely available. And by that time, our culture may have changed permanently. There just may not be nearly as many gigs anymore. I mean, I REALLY will miss gigging, if that’s what happens.
I would say you are probably correct that it will take time for a vaccine or other therapy to be fully distributed, as long as two years maybe? But once it's out, people are going to want to head back out and see live music with the same level of frequency that they did before, subject to the availability of disposable cash. If we end up in a deep recession, possibly worse than the one from 2008, that won't be because of the virus. It will be because of poor fiscal management.
 

C.M. Jones

Well-known member
And by that time, our culture may have changed permanently.
Our culture may have already changed permanently. I think many will be eager to resume previous modes of in-person, interactive entertainment, but just as many will remain hesitant to leave home unless doing so is obligatory. The extent to which the virus lingers will be significant. If we see a resurgence this fall, hysteria could proliferate widely and have a very drawn-out impact. Then again, who knows?

Regardless, playing live doesn't appear to be in the cards for quite some time, at least not without repeated interruption. Planning on gigs is hopeless right now.
 

Benthedrummer

Junior Member
Maybe I’ll get to play at church again, when/if this social distancing eases, but I’m worried I’ll never get another gig outside my church.
Hey there Push........mate, I hear you and totally understand how you feel.

But please, do not despair ok?

This current situation will be lingering for a while however.

But, as time goes on and things settle, there will be a paradigm shift toward our old version of "normalcy".

You need to remember that our conscious and subconscious has been overtaken by this damn virus.

It will take some time to "unlearn" our paranoia and concerns........we need to give people time to venture out into crowded places again.

So push.........what are some things you are doing to deal with your worries in the meantime?

I'm doing little things like changing my tom configurations, trying different heads, treating myself to a trip to the drum shop, working on my shuffles (especially the friggin Texas one), increasing my level of exercise, looking at second hand drum stuff, avoiding ex girlfriends, trying to quit smoking.....etc etc.
 

Push pull stroke

Platinum Member
Our culture may have already changed permanently. I think many will be eager to resume previous modes of in-person, interactive entertainment, but just as many will remain hesitant to leave home unless doing so is obligatory. The extent to which the virus lingers will be significant. If we see a resurgence this fall, hysteria could proliferate widely and have a very drawn-out impact. Then again, who knows?

Regardless, playing live doesn't appear to be in the cards for quite some time, at least not without repeated interruption. Planning on gigs is hopeless right now.
Yeah, if there’s a resurgence in the fall/winter after a slowdown in new cases in the summer, we’re not getting back to normal until there’s a really effective vaccine. That’s my guess, anyway. Although this thing appears to not be slowed down by heat and humidity—look at the infection rates in Georgia/Louisiana.
 

Pootle

Well-known member
When social distancing measures are relaxed, how many venues, bars and pubs are still going to be open, or be in a financial position to reopen. That’s my concern. You’d be brave to open a venue as a new business venture given the likely prevailing circumstances. And how much appetite there will be amongst the general public to get together in a confined space. Maybe limited numbers or open air events in the short term but the financial return will be very limited as the fixed costs will remain. Very frightening. In the meantime I’ll just keep working on my left foot and independence.
 

Push pull stroke

Platinum Member
When social distancing measures are relaxed, how many venues, bars and pubs are still going to be open, or be in a financial position to reopen. That’s my concern. You’d be brave to open a venue as a new business venture given the likely prevailing circumstances. And how much appetite there will be amongst the general public to get together in a confined space. Maybe limited numbers or open air events in the short term but the financial return will be very limited as the fixed costs will remain. Very frightening. In the meantime I’ll just keep working on my left foot and independence.
Exactly. There’s just no way we will be gigging again until there’s a GOOD vaccine. I’m even wondering if a lot of small churches aren’t just going to close down permanently. I wonder if my local Unitarian Church that I attend and gig at will close down.

I suspect live music is mostly over. I suspect what few gigs there are will be small ensembles. The days of symphony orchestras, concert bands, marching bands, large choirs, operas, etc. are mostly over, I suspect.
 

Pootle

Well-known member
Exactly. There’s just no way we will be gigging again until there’s a GOOD vaccine. I’m even wondering if a lot of small churches aren’t just going to close down permanently. I wonder if my local Unitarian Church that I attend and gig at will close down.

I suspect live music is mostly over. I suspect what few gigs there are will be small ensembles. The days of symphony orchestras, concert bands, marching bands, large choirs, operas, etc. are mostly over, I suspect.
My local venue hosts all sorts of gigs, open band nights, comedy, arts classes and has been closed since mid March. So many people enjoy all sorts of events there. They posted on their Facebook page a few days ago that had been broken into and had suffered some vandalism and damage. Just kids being stupid probably but the venue can’t afford this. I live in a small town of 12,000, not inner city, so sadly I think we’ll see more and more of this. Just desperately desperately sad and frustrating.
 

Push pull stroke

Platinum Member
Check this out, they have started Drive-In concerts in Lithuania


Not something I see as a viable alternative but still pretty interesting all the same.
That might help some. It still won’t get symphony orchestras playing again. Or marching bands, etc..
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
I was reading how some of the damage to the US economy is likely irreparable so the poverty can be way more deadly than the virus. Then I started reading about Great Depression and found some 7 million Americans starved to death during that period. What?? Kind of a Catch-22 seem like no matter what we do can be deadly. You don't isolate you die-you isolate you die just a slower death. Way more people to feed and provide for than during the Great Depression era so makes me shudder what could happen-like some damn B grade futuristic movie.
 
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