CoronaVirus

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AzHeat

Platinum Member
I don't know the situation overseas at all, but here......the only things that have completely sold out in the supermarkets is toilet paper.

There has been frantic panic shopping for toilet paper.

Plenty of tinned food, dried goods, water, paper towels, chocolates etc etc but absolutely NO toilet paper.
That's because the media said if there was a crisis, Hawaii would run out of toilet paper. to my knowledge the corona virus symptoms are similar to that of a very bad cold. Not sure why we all need toilet paper. Tissue maybe. My wife had to go to several stores to find a few lovely rolls. We were out. Tissue was not an issue. Prime case of the public turning off their brains and running where the media tells them!
 

Benthedrummer

Junior Member
I wonder if
That's because the media said if there was a crisis, Hawaii would run out of toilet paper. to my knowledge the corona virus symptoms are similar to that of a very bad cold. Not sure why we all need toilet paper. Tissue maybe. My wife had to go to several stores to find a few lovely rolls. We were out. Tissue was not an issue. Prime case of the public turning off their brains and running where the media tells them!
Hawaii?!!

So THAT'S where it started eh??
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Just watch I bet already someone has exploited Sharona.
"When you gonna give to me, a gift to me
Is it just a matter of time, Corona?
Is it d-d-destiny, d-destiny
Or is it just a game in my mind, Corona?" Wait I just did it. Dagnabit Catch-22
 

Hewitt2

Senior Member
Incubation period now tracked as 14 - 24 days. That means that most statistic information is circa 2-3 weeks behind the actual carrier rate.

I'm a fairly pragmatic guy, & certainly not prone to panic or influenced by hype. Aside from the fact our hard won spring / summer gig schedule is now likely trashed, I do have concerns for my own wellbeing. I have a health profile that puts me in a category likely to not do well (understatement) if infected.

I have just cancelled an overseas event for next week (the Netherlands), and probably another one in Vancouver in 6 weeks time.

I am fully prepared for self isolation, as that's my best defence against this virus.

I have good friends in North East Italy who I'm in daily communication with. They're in the middle of a really shitty situation over this. In a very small area, the first case was diagnosed February 22nd, Within 12 days, despite strong containment measures (total lockdown), they had 2,500 confirmed cases and 71 deaths (a much higher mortality rate than exampled elsewhere). Most disturbing, younger people with no pre existing conditions have died, although the majority are elderly or otherwise compromised.

I don't think this is a situation to get all wound up about, but nor do I think it's right to pass this off as a comparison to influenza. It is a significant threat, and one all of us should seek to mitigate as far as is reasonably practical. Virus' have a habit of evolving - it's early days. It's too early for any of us to form a well informed opinion.
Very reasonable approach.
I’m gutted as I was hoping to travel from Canada to the UK for the Genesis concerts in November but as a father of young children and the sole income earner in the family, I don’t know if it would be a responsible thing to purchase tix now not knowing what the future may hold. My wife is fully supportive of my going and I don’t know if trip cancellation insurance would apply so I am cautiously deciding against it. 😢
 

Andy

Administrator
Staff member
Very reasonable approach.
I’m gutted as I was hoping to travel from Canada to the UK for the Genesis concerts in November but as a father of young children and the sole income earner in the family, I don’t know if it would be a responsible thing to purchase tix now not knowing what the future may hold. My wife is fully supportive of my going and I don’t know if trip cancellation insurance would apply so I am cautiously deciding against it. 😢
Although nothing is certain, it's a widely held view that this crapfest should be out of the way by then, or at least, that's the hope.

From my own band situation, we've worked hard to book up a whole series of great summer festivals & events, many of them significant. It's gutting to think most of those will likely get flushed down the toilet.
 

MrInsanePolack

Platinum Member
However.........I will leave all my drum equipment to MrInsanePolack
Wow! I appreciate your generosity. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen. You should stick around and play your own gear.

I'm not buying this. I'm 44. In my lifetime we have had coronavirus, sars, swine flu, west nile, mad cow, Africanized killer bees, and HIV/AIDS. It's always the same thing, "New virus kills people, be terrified, more news at 10". To be completely honest, I'm more worried about getting into a car accident.

I get this thing kills people. For now. Someone will figure it out and then it will be about as scary as diarrhea.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
My wife is a Pediatric Hospice director so deals with teens to babes often with terminal illnesses. So far she hasn't changed her activities in regard to cornoavirus (at least no masks yet). She has a meeting in next two weeks in California that she and one of my daughters, who is coming along for sight seeing plans, are planning. So far the meeting nor their travel plans cancelled but it's a "wait and see" scenario. About 50,000 American die from pneumonia each year from various causes-and it's pneumonia that seems the issue with this virus. So nothing to ignore for sure. When I was in grad school a Pediatric Cardiologist who worked in same Heart Development group died from a random sudden pneumonia-he was a young fella.
 
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AzHeat

Platinum Member
Wow! I appreciate your generosity. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen. You should stick around and play your own gear.

I'm not buying this. I'm 44. In my lifetime we have had coronavirus, sars, swine flu, west nile, mad cow, Africanized killer bees, and HIV/AIDS. It's always the same thing, "New virus kills people, be terrified, more news at 10". To be completely honest, I'm more worried about getting into a car accident.

I get this thing kills people. For now. Someone will figure it out and then it will be about as scary as diarrhea.
Flu kills 10 - 20,000 US residents every year. Thus far the beer virus has killed 11. Also, every year has its hysterias and election years even more so, always entirely driven by the media. If it isn't a disease, then it's a financial panic. If what they said were true, we would have all been dead over and over, every year. It's why I was hoping to find some smoking' deals again this year. Actually quite surprised by not finding any. I have been living by a policy that has served me well. When the media says go left, I go right.
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You're right about diarrhea though. With the panic run over toilet paper, this would be a very bad time for the runs!
 

larryace

"Uncle Larry"
Reminds me of the saying "I have suffered through 1000's of catastrophes, none of which ever occurred".
 
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GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Don't forget the climate is going to kill everyone and everything in next 15 years. Just wait I wager an effort to link these viruses with climate change-there is no end to the insanity and fallacy arguments. When the worse scenario is a PETM like warm event with no ice on earth, lots of environment changes (some areas more arid others more wet) which may cause some land species extinction and cause many migrations to new habitats (however this event 50 million years ago was the Age of Mammals) but most likely new species will evolve (look at the Chernobyl disaster is a flourishing ecosystem now). Sea levels with rise but actually with no ice there is more inhabitable land with all Antartica, etc ice free. There would be a huge deep sea benthic extinction event for sure-that is the big extinction event of PETM. But the last PETM didn't kill everything-in fact without it we wouldn't be here ironically. It seems any natural event, disaster, is now exploited by media, governments, and politicians. Fear mongering Slime balls. Seems a huge effort to wag the dog to make you Angry or Scared doesn't it?
 

rhumbagirl

Senior Member
The media is overhyping the risk, the government is downplaying the risk. The real situation lies somewhere in between. It would be foolish to ignore the situation just because you think it's being overblown, but being afraid doesn't help. Listen to what's going on and take whatever precautions you think are reasonable. If you feel sick, have respect for your fellow human beings and get yourself checked out before you go sneezing on everyone.
Cases outside of mainland China have doubled in just 4 days (15K on Mar 4, 7K on Feb 29). The problem isn't the seriousness of the infection, but the lack of resources in healthcare systems to respond. The nature of the pandemic is that it spreads before it is detected. So you could have the potential for a lot of people that would normally survive with the help of a ventilator in a hospital, but due to demand there won't be enough resources to help people, and they could die. That's why the comparison to the flu is not applicable. Because the flu is only contagious when symptoms show (well they include one day prior to symptoms, but a far cry from the 14 days for coronavirus) and the demand on health care resources isn't a simultaneous spike like it is for coronavirus.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Apparently only a small fraction of those exposed have no symptoms, about 80% have mild symptoms, and about 5% have sever symptoms. I think in China X-ray and here chest CT has been a cheap identification (of a type of pneumonia) before more expensive testing. I think the real question is why are some people at risk for the pneumonia aspect? That likely derived from general health, polymorphisms in our immune systems in interacting with the virus. It has been reported that Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 on oral mucosa epithelium is the main host cell receptor of 2019-nCoV and plays a crucial role in the entry of virus into the cell to cause the final infection. One can imagine a cheap synthetic benign competitive inhibitor gum or candy so all the receptors of entry would be saturated-hey that's a good idea. Actually you could synthesize a mimetic virus that lacks the sequences that cause disease ( even load it with a Trojan horse ) so it would be incorporated into the real COVID-19-basically use evolution to spread a competitive virus of our design to incorporate into real deal and be propagated to either pass a neutered virus. or one that senesces in so many replications . This isn't my idea but one that has been entertained for some time.
 
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rhumbagirl

Senior Member
Apparently only a small fraction of those exposed have no symptoms, about 80% have mild symptoms, and about 5% have sever symptoms. I think in China X-ray and here chest CT has been a cheap identification (of a type of pneumonia) before more expensive testing. I think the real question is why are some people at risk for the pneumonia aspect? That likely derived from general health, polymorphisms in our immune systems in interacting with the virus. It has been reported that Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 on oral mucosa epithelium is the main host cell receptor of 2019-nCoV and plays a crucial role in the entry of virus into the cell to cause the final infection. One can imagine a cheap synthetic benign competitive inhibitor gum or candy so all the receptors of entry would be saturated.
I was thinking of taking the time off in quarantine to build a self-contained hazmat buggy using parts from a motorized wheelchair, plexi-glass, and a dehumidifier. But the gum idea solves all of it!
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
Now they say don't carry "money" it can really be contaminated with bacteria and viruses. So all of it needs to be placed into those hazards materials bags and then PM for my address so you can all send me your contaminated and offending money-no worries I'll dispose of it ethically and painlessly. Hey I'm a righteous dude LOL.
 

Juniper

Gold Member
"Now, can someone please tell me why this flu virus has people and media outlets spreading fear? My first hunch was US stock market manipulation by foreign nationals."

"In all seriousness the whole thing is something I'm monitoring daily, news wise."

Two posts right next to each other that pose, then answer the real question. Fear and paranoia all in the name of clicks! Im not saying we shouldn't be vigilant and take precautions. But the real story is being subdued to sell more advertisements.
Well, I'm not sat in a media hub watching different news channels from multiple different TVs - whilst dressed in a mask AND in full body gear.

It's 22:36pm here and I'm yet to check in on the latest today - so I guess I'm still living life close to the edge!

; )
 

Andy

Administrator
Staff member
For the sake of clarity, for those who believe COVID-19 has either the same or only slightly higher mortality rate compared to seasonal flu, and dismiss it on that basis, you might want to read this latest update from the World Health Organisation. Mortality rate = 34 times greater, as experienced by my dear friend in Northern Italy, who lost two of his relatives in the last 3 days - one elderly, one aged 51 in perfect health.

The latest global death rate for the novel coronavirus is 3.4 percent – higher than earlier figures of about 2 percent.

The World Health Organisation's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, noted that the death rate was far higher than that of the seasonal flu, which kills about 0.1 percent of those infected.


Update: Mortality rate very much subject to adjustment through wider testing and with progressive stat's.
 

GetAgrippa

Platinum Member
I read the rate was 3 times that of flu so 3.4 percent while flu runs .8-1% but it's nothing to squabble because your personal reference hits home. I shouldn't make light of it-considering it could hit my family. I guess nervous energy-I'm worried about family-my wife a Medical professionals, her aged parents, my grand baby. I've been looking how to use ultrafilter allergen air filters to make masks since there is a shortage-you can make them as effective as a NP95 in theory. We've been stocking up and the wife came in saying they are breaking out and testing respirators at work. I'm on high alert! My apologizes for any offense. I'm looking at herbal remedies, anything that offers some remedy.
 

Andy

Administrator
Staff member
My apologizes for any offense.
Absolutely zero offence Art, & my comment wasn't aimed at you, just the general body comparing the two virus types, as they are fundamentally different. The bottom line is, nobody really knows how this virus will morph, not even the experts, but the evidence thus far (especially if I reference NE Italy) doesn't look great.
 

Hewitt2

Senior Member
Absolutely zero offence Art, & my comment wasn't aimed at you, just the general body comparing the two virus types, as they are fundamentally different. The bottom line is, nobody really knows how this virus will morph, not even the experts, but the evidence thus far (especially if I reference NE Italy) doesn't look great.
I managed operations centres around the globe and have been on a depressing number of business continuity calls over the last few days. Just looking at the speed at which this has spread (and is likely significantly under-defected) and the various statistical scenarios that flow from this pattern is, urm......enlightening?
 
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