DRUMMERWORLD OFFICIAL DISCUSSION FORUM   

Go Back   DRUMMERWORLD OFFICIAL DISCUSSION FORUM > Off Topic Lounge

Off Topic Lounge All Discussions Not Related To Drumming

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools
  #1  
Old 01-27-2015, 06:35 PM
larryace's Avatar
larryace larryace is offline
"Uncle Larry"
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: In beautiful Bucks County, PA
Posts: 14,872
Default Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

We just recently had a BIG weather scare in our area for "blizzard like conditions" today. OK nothing even remotely resembling that occurred. Schools were closed 2 days in advance lol. We ended up getting like a paltry 3 inches of light fluffy snow lol. It's kind of rediculous at this point.

I just can't believe these big storm scare reports anymore because more often than not, they are WAAY over exaggerated. Based on how many times I've seen this happen, I treat these weather scares as a boy crying wolf anymore. I'll believe it when it actually happens and not before anymore. I just don't trust these big storm reports anymore.

Besides, there are snow plows and salt trucks. They work pretty good to keep things moving.
__________________
The best way to do art, is to dispense with good and bad...and just get on with it.
  #2  
Old 01-27-2015, 08:07 PM
keep it simple's Avatar
keep it simple keep it simple is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Herefordshire, UK.
Posts: 17,992
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Damned if they do Larry, damned if they don't. To be fair, if that storm had tracked 100 miles west and a bit more south, you might have a different story to tell. Kinda catch your vibe on this though. The media love to blow things out of proportion, & officials are so worried about their own positions, blame avoidance is endemic :(
  #3  
Old 01-27-2015, 08:17 PM
jeffwj's Avatar
jeffwj jeffwj is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Richmond, VA - Williamsburg, VA
Posts: 2,015
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Larry,

I am originally from Hazleton, PA - so I know what it is like to walk and drive in snow.

We just had school cancelled down here in Richmond, VA because there was a dusting - basically just flurries that turned the grass a bit white. But the roads were just wet. Originally it was a two hour delay, but they decided to cancel school completely.

Almost all of my students are coming in today. The roads are basically dry by now.

Jeff
__________________
Johnson Drum Instruction - Drum Lessons in Richmond, VA
Author of "The Level System"
  #4  
Old 01-27-2015, 08:31 PM
KamaK KamaK is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: East Coast
Posts: 1,900
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

I'm upstate NY. We had a light dusting this morning. My kid took the bus to school.

My kid just got off the bus at 2:30. We have about 8 inches.

It's still snowing.
  #5  
Old 01-27-2015, 08:46 PM
Red Menace's Avatar
Red Menace Red Menace is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AZ
Posts: 2,137
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

I live in Phoenix, AZ. The weather is 64 deg. F (18 C) and I find it far too cold.
__________________
Sale of this space pending.
  #6  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:16 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

I've learned to never trust the "experts" in matters such as this. They continually prove to me to be wrong on everything. Weather, sports, elections, you name it.

It's pretty sad how schools have to be so cautious these days. It takes -30 windchills here to close schools and about 8+ inches of snow. There is definitely a wussy society being foistered on us.

If you deal with people daily, you probably already know what I mean. I get service calls for things that seem so common sense, yet these people can't think for themselves and solve their own problems. I liken it to the people who have to drive around with their GPS on all the time. Really? You're not sure where you're going? Time to give up driving. It's not for you.

Last edited by Blisco; 01-27-2015 at 11:06 PM.
  #7  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:21 PM
Notbob's Avatar
Notbob Notbob is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: !here
Posts: 104
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by larryace View Post
We just recently had a BIG weather scare in our area for "blizzard like conditions" today. OK nothing even remotely resembling that occurred. Schools were closed 2 days in advance lol. We ended up getting like a paltry 3 inches of light fluffy snow lol. It's kind of rediculous at this point.

I just can't believe these big storm scare reports anymore because more often than not, they are WAAY over exaggerated.
Right. Because if YOU didn't get any snow then the storm was a complete bust. You might want to expand your view just a tad. Boston is getting hammered.
__________________
} /* Resist corporate power. Unbrand yourself. */
  #8  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:38 PM
eclipseownzu's Avatar
eclipseownzu eclipseownzu is offline
Gold Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: New London, CT
Posts: 1,004
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Umm, I am looking at 3 feet of snow out my back door and it is still coming down at nearly an inch an hour. In this case, there really was a wolf.

If the state had not closed the roads, the idiots who dont believe the reports would have been on the highways crashing into each other like bumper cars. As a government you have to protect people from themselves. If they had not closed the schools, and you had gotten several feet of snow, somebody would have sued the state when they crashed their car. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont.
__________________
www.reverbnation.com/stikpin
  #9  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:44 PM
GRUNTERSDAD's Avatar
GRUNTERSDAD GRUNTERSDAD is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Florida's Left Coast
Posts: 16,287
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

The snow plows have to be ahead of the snow if it is going to be a big one. Laying down salt that is. I'm from Maryland and have seen my share of "where in the hell did that come from" storms.If a few school buses end up on the side of the road the law suits would be phenominal. predicting blizzard and getting a dusting is much preferred to the opposite scenario. When I was in High School a bunch of us older lads got off of the bus and pushed to help it get up a small grade. Now a days the bus company, the principal, the school district supervisor would all be in jail or looking for new jobs. In 1987, the year I left Maryland my gung ho boss picked me up in such a blizzard to go to work. The 20 minute ride was 1 1/2 hours. We stayed 2 hours and then it took us 3 hours to get home. a little more insight and we would have stayed home.
__________________
251 days until retirement.
Feel.
Control the Bounce.
  #10  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:44 PM
KamaK KamaK is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: East Coast
Posts: 1,900
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
I've learned to never trust the "experts" in matters such as this. They continually prove me wrong on everything.
Wait... what? I do not think this came out as you intended.
  #11  
Old 01-27-2015, 09:46 PM
GRUNTERSDAD's Avatar
GRUNTERSDAD GRUNTERSDAD is offline
Administrator
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Florida's Left Coast
Posts: 16,287
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Yep.....edit is forth coming.
__________________
251 days until retirement.
Feel.
Control the Bounce.
  #12  
Old 01-27-2015, 10:27 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KamaK View Post
Wait... what? I do not think this came out as you intended.
..to me to be...wrong
  #13  
Old 01-27-2015, 10:41 PM
Notbob's Avatar
Notbob Notbob is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: !here
Posts: 104
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KamaK View Post
Wait... what? I do not think this came out as you intended.
I dunno, maybe it wasn't intended but it made perfect sense to me!

I find it very entertaining when people say they don't trust experts.
__________________
} /* Resist corporate power. Unbrand yourself. */
  #14  
Old 01-27-2015, 10:58 PM
larryace's Avatar
larryace larryace is offline
"Uncle Larry"
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: In beautiful Bucks County, PA
Posts: 14,872
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notbob View Post
Right. Because if YOU didn't get any snow then the storm was a complete bust.
Actually, I just said this so you would have something to throw in my face, because I know how much you enjoy doing that. :)
__________________
The best way to do art, is to dispense with good and bad...and just get on with it.
  #15  
Old 01-27-2015, 11:12 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notbob View Post
I dunno, maybe it wasn't intended but it made perfect sense to me!

I find it very entertaining when people say they don't trust experts.
Your arguement is invalid. Because I don't trust the so-called experts, that does not mean I think of myself as one. There is no bias, there is no effect.

There is a high probability that I have more common sense than most so-called experts. I just don't happen to dwell in their field. That doesn't make my observations any less pertinent. I'm sure if I spent the time paging through a pyschology book, I could find a condition related to "experts" so narrowly focusing on their choosen topic that they can't see beyond or to the side. I'll coin it the 'blinder's response'.

Last edited by Blisco; 01-27-2015 at 11:30 PM.
  #16  
Old 01-27-2015, 11:21 PM
Red Menace's Avatar
Red Menace Red Menace is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AZ
Posts: 2,137
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
There is a high probability that I have more common sense than most so-called experts. I just don't happen to dwell in their field. That doesn't make my observations any less pertinent.
I really need to stay out of these discussion but I just have to point out that you are exhibiting the exact phenomena that Bob just mentioned.
__________________
Sale of this space pending.
  #17  
Old 01-27-2015, 11:39 PM
KamaK KamaK is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: East Coast
Posts: 1,900
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
Your arguement is invalid. Because I don't trust the so-called experts, that does not mean I think of myself as one.
With meteorology, there's really no trust involved unless you make it into something it wasn't ever supposed to be. The weather report is just a guy presenting a list of probable outcomes based on models and statistics.

What is there to (dis)trust/(dis)believe? It's like distrusting the bikini-girl on the pick-6 lotto.
  #18  
Old 01-27-2015, 11:57 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Menace View Post
I really need to stay out of these discussion but I just have to point out that you are exhibiting the exact phenomena that Bob just mentioned.
I'm not mistakenly rating my ability higher than it is or theirs. I don't profess to know more about their given field at all. But that doesn't make my unskilled observations any less valid. I can see the sky is blue. I may not know why scientifically, but it is still blue.

Experts have a highly focused apperature and I believe that can cause them to box out other thoughts and ideas. Hence, my blinders theory.
  #19  
Old 01-28-2015, 12:48 AM
8Mile's Avatar
8Mile 8Mile is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Detroit, MI
Posts: 2,935
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
I don't profess to know more about their given field at all. But that doesn't make my unskilled observations any less valid.
Of course it does. .....
  #20  
Old 01-28-2015, 10:24 AM
Jeremy Bender's Avatar
Jeremy Bender Jeremy Bender is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Gulf Coast USA
Posts: 2,271
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

I guess it all boils down to where you are at the end of the storm. My hometown in MA got 30" of snow. Huge amount!
It's sunny and 70 on the Gulf Coast where I live now. We have a different version of hell from June-Sept.
__________________
"Music is the traveler crossing our world, meeting so many people, bridging the seas"
  #21  
Old 01-28-2015, 12:26 PM
evolving_machine's Avatar
evolving_machine evolving_machine is offline
Silver Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: New Jersey.
Posts: 562
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

The infrastructure in the U.S. is under funded and falling behind and falling apart. The U.S. prediction system has ten times less computing power than the European system, and falling further and further behind.

The weather prediction from the U.S. predicted Sandy to hit two days after the European system did. What is most likely needed is a new system with larger super computers that will allow the system to be upgraded periodically.

Upgrading the weather prediction system is not just to offset an inconvenient population. It will help prevent unnecessary statewide closures. What is the cost to upgraded the system vs closing airports, roads, schools, and lost wadges? At what point do they release the funding?
__________________
I am not here just to keep the beat; I add color, timbre, and presence.
  #22  
Old 01-28-2015, 03:06 PM
Notbob's Avatar
Notbob Notbob is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: !here
Posts: 104
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Well, when you have a government that consists of a large number of people who are convinced that government can never do anything positive, that's what you get. We are infested with anarcho-capitalists.
__________________
} /* Resist corporate power. Unbrand yourself. */
  #23  
Old 01-28-2015, 05:45 PM
eclipseownzu's Avatar
eclipseownzu eclipseownzu is offline
Gold Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: New London, CT
Posts: 1,004
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
There is a high probability that I have more common sense than most so-called experts.
Thank god you are here. Now all of us experts can just go home. I mean with our low common sense levels and all I'm surprised we have accomplished anything anyway. Guess I wasted 4 years of my life on that silly electrical engineering degree. Looks like all I got was a piece of paper and a nice set of blinders.

Or maybe, just maybe that being an expert means I am able to predict situations you cant even fathom. By the time your spidey senses start to tingle I am already 5 steps ahead of you. I interned with a major power company right out of college and let me tell you, people with no common sense dont last long in that profession.

Congratulations on your ability to see that the sky is blue. But let me tell you something; by the time you look up and realize its not blue anymore, you are already doomed.
__________________
www.reverbnation.com/stikpin
  #24  
Old 01-28-2015, 07:13 PM
Smoke Smoke is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Lansing, MI, USA
Posts: 289
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

A meteorologist once explained to me that "a 50% chance of rain" indicates that 50% of the broadcast/listening area will likely get rain. But since the weather seldom polls the meteorologist prior to arrival in the broadcast/listening area, all bets are off.

As Andy pointed out, a 50 mile shift in a weather event will leave a good number of folks in the broadcast footprint looking at the sky wondering why they listen to the meteorologist in the first place.

Look at the number of ships lost at sea prior to the invention of weather radar, then compare that number to current times. In my lifetime, I only recall three freighters sunk in the great lakes due to weather anomalies- the last being the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975.

A search for the deadliest tornadoes shows that the greater preponderance of killer tornadoes occurred prior to 1980. Does that mean the weather is less deadly or that our meteorologists are able to predict deadly weather and get us to safety before all heck breaks loose?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...or_more_deaths

All-in-all, I'd say the weather guessers are doing a pretty good job.
  #25  
Old 01-28-2015, 07:47 PM
BacteriumFendYoke's Avatar
BacteriumFendYoke BacteriumFendYoke is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Kent, United Kingdom
Posts: 4,808
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eclipseownzu View Post
Thank god you are here. Now all of us experts can just go home. I mean with our low common sense levels and all I'm surprised we have accomplished anything anyway. Guess I wasted 4 years of my life on that silly electrical engineering degree. Looks like all I got was a piece of paper and a nice set of blinders.

Or maybe, just maybe that being an expert means I am able to predict situations you cant even fathom. By the time your spidey senses start to tingle I am already 5 steps ahead of you. I interned with a major power company right out of college and let me tell you, people with no common sense dont last long in that profession.

Congratulations on your ability to see that the sky is blue. But let me tell you something; by the time you look up and realize its not blue anymore, you are already doomed.
Can I just applaud you for your comment there? Bang on.

There's a good reason that people spend time learning a craft, skill, trade or profession. Sure, sometimes an outsider's perspective can be very useful and the blindingly obvious can pass by an expert because of their knowledge base and methodology but 99% of the time, they're experts for a freakin' reason. They know what they're talking about.
  #26  
Old 01-28-2015, 07:51 PM
BacteriumFendYoke's Avatar
BacteriumFendYoke BacteriumFendYoke is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Kent, United Kingdom
Posts: 4,808
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blisco View Post
But that doesn't make my unskilled observations any less valid.
Yes, yes it does.

Want to do heart surgery? Medical research? Play cricket for Sri Lanka? Write an article for the New York Times?

You can't. You don't have the skill base. You don't have the knowledge, skills and experience necessary to do so. If you do, then knock yourself out. But I doubt you qualify to play cricket for Sri Lanka.

Most of the time, I trust experts. If a doctor told me that I had heart disease and recommended me a course of treatment, I'd trust their judgement because that's what they do. I might ask for a second opinion but what I wouldn't do is think that I know better than somebody that does that job for sixty hours a week and has studied for seven years. If I did dispute it, I'd find another expert similarly qualified and ask them. If there are differences of opinion, I'd ask why but I wouldn't for a second assume that I know better just because I think my opinion is valid.

Having an 'unskilled opinion' does make your opinion less valid. I don't know quite when this idea that everybody's opinion is valid seemed to permeate our cultures. If there is an overwhelming expert view on a subject, I'm going to go with that most of the time - especially in scientific matters like meteorology or open heart surgery...
  #27  
Old 01-28-2015, 07:54 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by eclipseownzu View Post
Thank god you are here. Now all of us experts can just go home. I mean with our low common sense levels and all I'm surprised we have accomplished anything anyway. Guess I wasted 4 years of my life on that silly electrical engineering degree. Looks like all I got was a piece of paper and a nice set of blinders.

Or maybe, just maybe that being an expert means I am able to predict situations you cant even fathom. By the time your spidey senses start to tingle I am already 5 steps ahead of you. I interned with a major power company right out of college and let me tell you, people with no common sense dont last long in that profession.

Congratulations on your ability to see that the sky is blue. But let me tell you something; by the time you look up and realize its not blue anymore, you are already doomed.
I have 3 degrees, if you want to play that game. The last thing I think I am because of them is an expert. I happen to know some things but I am by no means an expert. Congratulation on making "expert" level. A power company should have competent people in the right places. Not all careers require that. Not all careers come close. I'm not an astronaut, so they probably shouldn't put me in a capsule. If I was high and mighty, I might think I should be put in one. But I'm not even a novice in that field.

My bigger point of 'experts' being wrong more often than not is the issue. Are you willing to wager your entire life's savings on the expert predictions of TV talking heads on this coming Super Bowl? You're gonna get 8 hours of people talking about it before the game. Me, I'll just watch and enjoy the game.

Is the sky color changing anytime soon? Shouldn't you warn someone about that? I hear the competent people in the Federal agencies would like to investigate that.
  #28  
Old 01-28-2015, 07:58 PM
Blisco Blisco is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 175
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Quote:
Originally Posted by BacteriumFendYoke View Post
Yes, yes it does.

Want to do heart surgery? Medical research? Play cricket for Sri Lanka? Write an article for the New York Times?

You can't. You don't have the skill base. You don't have the knowledge, skills and experience necessary to do so.

Most of the time, I trust experts. If a doctor told me that I had heart disease and recommended me a course of treatment, I'd trust their judgement because that's what they do. I might ask for a second opinion but what I wouldn't do is think that I know better than somebody that does that job for sixty hours a week and has studied for seven years. If I did dispute it, I'd find another expert similarly qualified and ask them. If there are differences of opinion, I'd ask why but I wouldn't for a second assume that I know better just because I think my opinion is valid.

Having an 'unskilled opinion' does make your opinion less valid. I don't know quite when this idea that everybody's opinion is valid seemed to permeate our cultures. If there is an overwhelming expert view on a subject, I'm going to go with that most of the time - especially in scientific matters like meteorology or open heart surgery...
Would you ask a doctor about car buying or which golf clubs to invest in? It's not 'what he does', but he does have a nice car and is a member at the country club. Is his opinion on those two topics any less valid than the sales guys at the dealerships who just want to sell you something?
  #29  
Old 01-28-2015, 08:41 PM
BacteriumFendYoke's Avatar
BacteriumFendYoke BacteriumFendYoke is offline
Platinum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Kent, United Kingdom
Posts: 4,808
Default Re: Weather Reports, like the boy who cried wolf?

Strawman. If he has a low handicap at golf I might ask him a few questions about golf. The other guy is trying to sell you something so no, I wouldn't because there is an inherent trust issue and conflict of interest.
Closed Thread


Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are Off
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off




All times are GMT +2. The time now is 04:01 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Bernhard Castiglioni's DRUMMERWORLD.com